Thread: What does Omicron augur?
Are we at the beginning of the end, or the middle of the beginning?
We’re now in the Age of Omicron, which sounds like a Transformers sequel. At this point I have no idea what to make of it. The other day I listened to an episode of The Daily, in which the upshot was that we’re likely at the start of yet another massive global wave of death, and we need to double down again on vaxxing, masking and social distancing. Right after that, I listened to an episode of Unherd’s podcast, in which the takeaway was that cases in South Africa are mild and likely plateauing already and hospitals are doing just fine, and if Omicron bumps out Delta it might be our offramp from the pandemic.
We’re at the point where, depending on your media diet, you might believe we’re still ascending a steep upward curve of a world historical emergency with no end in sight, or you might think the pandemic is mostly yesterday’s news. I’m guessing there’s a range of opinions on that question among subscribers to this Substack. So my question is: What do the next 12 months of the pandemic look like, in your opinion?
There are obviously two dimensions to that question: one epidemiological, the other political. Feel free to comment on either or both, but I have one request: try to stay more or less evidence-based. If you think things are getting better or worse, either in terms of the virus’ spread or in terms of the ways governments are responding to it, please make reference to actual things that are demonstrably happening in the world, not just your gut instinct.
Chime in in the comments. Open thread.
There's a pretty easy way to assess the credibility of the competing narratives: the body count. Since the Omicron headlines began, I've been checking South Africa Covid deaths. I understand it's a lagging indicator, but enough time has now passed that we would see rising deaths at the omicron epicenter if this were something to worry about. We're not seeing that.
The current 7-day average for death (with/of) Covid in South Africa is 33. Since mid-October, South Africa has seen and continues to see its lowest body counts since the beginning of their pandemic. I see no reason at this point to think that omicron is any worse than a seasonal flu. Unlike the public health authorities, I'm always open to changing my view when new evidence comes in. But this is where I'm at now.
I believe almost all of the universal policies (as opposed to policies targeted specifically at protecting high risk populations) have caused considerably more societal harm than good to date, even in the face of the prior deadlier variants. With omicron, the cost-benefit analysis becomes that much more skewed against these policies.
My first crossing the Rubicon moment was when every adult who wanted a vaccine got one. I felt at that point we should have been done with these draconian "public health" policies, and I began vocally opposing basically all of it from that point forward. Omicron marks a new threshold. If the authorities continue to use omicron as a justification for doubling down instead of loosening up, that will be a clear indicator we are descending deeper into a very dark abyss from which we will not escape without a fight. This is not about public health anymore, to the extent it ever was. This is about social control. This is about soulless bureaucrats and their corporate handlers making a dramatic power grab. This is evil.
My best guess is that while Omnicron is not overall a serious health risk to people who are under 70, in good health, and/or vaccinated, it won’t be an off-ramp regardless. There are too many people who are in the more empowered class in society who won’t accept it as such. Living in a very “progressive” neighborhood in a Blue State urban area, with plenty of highly educated PMC-ers who consider NPR and the NYTs to be gospel, I am convinced that some sort of deep psychological attachment to Covid protocols and hyper-cautiousness has developed that will be very hard for those have internalized it to let go of.
Everyday, I see a majority of people doing things like walking their dog alone, through the park, with no one within hundreds of feet, wearing a mask. Riding a bicycle down an urban street with cars whizzing by - wearing a mask. It’s mandated to wear masks in stores, on buses, etc., and almost everyone complies all the time.
The only exception in public spaces is bars and restaurants, where somehow it’s OK to only wear your mask from the entry way to your table, and then take it off the rest of the time - unless you need to get up to use the restroom, in which case you are supposed to put your mask back on, and most people do.
Obviously, much of this makes zero logical sense, but it doesn’t matter. The people who are the most zealous about mask wearing as described above are the same who 100% believe that they are the rational people “following the science,” and those who disagree are infected by the wave of irrational disinformation, Trumpism, etc. that’s threatening the Republic.
Most people may not be quite that zealous, but it doesn’t bother them to go along with it all; better safe than sorry, etc. Not to mention, cultural and peer pressure. My periodic rants about how problematic this all is are generally met either with quizzical bemusement or upset pushback. It is very rare for me to encounter anyone who seems to be bothered by living like this.
Therefore, I think that until the sources that the represent the center of cultural gravity in my neighborhood insist that it’s over (the NYTs, NPR, Fauci, the CDC, the Democratic Party leadership, etc.), it will never be over, irregardless of what’s happening with variants, hospitalizations, or anything else. And, given that the sort of people who run those institutions seem to share the mindset of the people I’m describing, I don’t see that happening anytime soon.